Bill White vs. Rick Perry – A New Poll

Texans haven’t voted in the March 2nd primary, but a  new polls shows that Democrat and former Houston Mayor Bill White has a good chance of  defeating Republican incumbent Governor Rick Perry in the general election matchup.

Supporters say the poll is good news for White. After this week’s debate with rival Farouk Shami, voters are getting to know him, and like what they see.

White’s campaign only recently started running statewide ads that focus on his positive message of  boosting education achievement in Texas.

Meanwhile,  Perry’s record in  office is facing tougher public scrutiny as a result of  the negative primary campaign against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Debra Medina.

There’s still a chance that Perry will avoid a runoff, but he will emerge from the primary a bruised candidate.  

Voters shouldn’t discount Perry as a result of this or any other poll: he’s never lost an election and he remains popular with conservatives. 

Still, Mayor White is clearly going to be the candidate  to watch closely in the general election!

News Release Follows 

Today, Research 2000 released their poll on the Texas Governor’s race. The poll shows Bill White trailing Rick Perry by only four points, and actually leading Perry among independents. You can read about the poll at the following links:http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/9982/research-2000-poll-white-only-trails-perry-by-4-points-leads-perry-among-independents

– Burnt Orange Report:

– Actual poll:http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/10/TX/444

Below are some highlights of the poll, as well as some notes about Bill White’s campaign success that have led to the strong showing in the polls.http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/10/TX/444>http://www.billwhitefortexas.com/multimedia/ads/> Feb 10, and has a 4% MOE. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. From their poll: showing that even those on the right recognize the validity of their poll numbers. In May 2008, Nate Silver with the national polling website www.fivethirtyeight.com rated them as one of the top polling groups in the country  ahead of other groups that have polled recently in Texas, including Public Policy Polling, Zogby, Gallup, and just behind Rasmussen.

*Question: If the election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Bill White, the Democrat, and Rick Perry, the Republican?*

– All voters: White 42, Perry 46

– Independents: White 45, Perry 42

*Key Points About the Poll*

1. Among independents, White leads both Perry and Medina and is tied with KBH

2. As in the Texas Tribune poll, both Perry and Hutchison are under 50% after spending big money on television for weeks — a terrible sign for 20-year statewide career politicians in an anti-incumbent year

3. White has still only been on TV for 10 days, in lighter and more targeted rotation than the Republicans

*Notes on Bill White’s Campaign Success*

1. White outraised both Perry and Hutchison in the last reporting period, and has $6.4 million COH.

2. White only started on television eleven days ago (Feb. 1). His first ad was about education, his second ad was a narrative spot.<

3. White has opened regional field offices across Texas — in Harris, Travis, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, Hidalgo, Webb, Cameron, Jefferson, & Bowie counties — and will be opening one in El Paso on Monday. That list of counties includes every county that went Democratic in 2008.

4. White has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO, TSTA, Tejano Democrats, the Statesman, Texas League of Conservation Voters, 12 State Senators, 66 House Reps, & many, many, many more.

*About the Poll & Research 2000*

The poll was taken from Feb 8

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

Research 2000 is a national polling group that performs both national and state-level polls. Their national poll numbers often track closely with those of other national polling firms. DailyKos, the prominent left-leaning political blog, partners with Research 2000 for their polls; however, there is no political bias in their numbers. In fact, a recent poll on the attitudes of Republican voters conducted by Research 2000 was used on Chris Wallace’s Sunday morning Fox News program

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